AI Winners and Losers: Which Businesses Are Gaining (and Losing) Value

Not every business is affected by AI the same way. Some industries are seeing multiples climb because AI makes them more profitable and scalable. Others are watching their valuations compress because AI can now do what they do — cheaper and faster.

If you own a business and plan to sell in the next few years, understanding where your industry falls on this spectrum is critical.

The Framework: AI-Enhanced vs. AI-Displaced

The simplest way to think about AI's impact on business valuations is to ask two questions:

1. Can AI replace the core value this business delivers? If a customer can get the same result from an AI tool as they get from your business, you're in trouble. If your business does work that requires physical presence, human judgment, regulatory compliance, or complex relationship management, you're better positioned.

2. Can AI make this business significantly more efficient? If AI tools can reduce costs, improve margins, or enable growth without proportional headcount increases, the business becomes more valuable — and buyers will pay more for it.

The best position: AI can't replace you, but it can make you better. That combination drives multiple expansion.

The worst position: AI can replace you, and your competitors are already using it. That drives multiple compression.

Businesses Gaining Value

Skilled Trades and Home Services

Multiple trend: Expanding

HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, and other skilled trades sit in the ideal position. The core work — diagnosing problems, making repairs, installing systems — requires licensed humans physically present. AI can't send a robot to fix your furnace.

But AI dramatically improves the business side: optimized routing cuts fuel costs and increases jobs per day, predictive maintenance scheduling creates recurring revenue, and automated customer communication boosts retention without adding staff.

Home services companies using AI tools are seeing 5-15% margin improvement while the underlying work remains completely human-dependent. Buyers love this combination, and multiples reflect it.

Healthcare Practices

Multiple trend: Expanding

Doctors, dentists, veterinarians, physical therapists, and behavioral health providers can't be replaced by AI. But AI is transforming the operational side — automated appointment scheduling, AI-assisted billing and coding, patient communication workflows, and clinical documentation tools are cutting overhead while maintaining (or improving) patient care quality.

Practices that have adopted these tools are showing stronger margins and lower staffing requirements for administrative functions. PE firms targeting healthcare roll-ups are actively seeking practices with modern technology stacks.

IT Managed Services and Cybersecurity

Multiple trend: Strongly expanding

Every business adopting AI needs someone to implement, manage, and secure it. MSPs and MSSPs are seeing demand surge as their clients navigate AI adoption, cloud migration, and the security threats that come with both.

AI also makes MSPs more efficient — automated monitoring, AI-driven ticket routing, and predictive maintenance reduce labor costs per client. The result: growing revenue, expanding margins, and higher multiples.

Specialty Construction and Engineering

Multiple trend: Stable to expanding

Complex construction — data centers, renewable energy, specialized infrastructure — requires expertise that AI enhances but can't replace. AI-powered project management, estimating, and design tools improve accuracy and margins while the physical work and engineering judgment remain human domains.

Data center construction in particular is booming as AI infrastructure demand drives massive capital investment from tech companies.

Financial Advisory and Wealth Management

Multiple trend: Expanding for advisory-focused firms

Firms that have shifted from transactional work to advisory relationships are benefiting. AI handles portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, and routine financial planning. That frees advisors to focus on relationship management, complex planning, and high-net-worth clients — the work that commands premium fees and retains clients.

Firms that are still primarily transactional are under pressure as AI-powered platforms replicate basic investment management at a fraction of the cost.

Businesses Under Pressure

Content and Creative Agencies (Commodity Tier)

Multiple trend: Compressing

Agencies that primarily produce high-volume, templated content — blog posts, social media graphics, basic ad copy, simple web design — are facing direct competition from AI tools that clients can use themselves. The output quality gap between AI and commodity creative work has largely closed.

The exception: Agencies focused on brand strategy, creative direction, complex campaigns, and high-end production are holding value. The strategic and creative work remains hard for AI to replicate. But the line between "we produce content" and "we drive strategy" is where multiples diverge sharply.

Basic Bookkeeping and Tax Preparation

Multiple trend: Compressing

AI-powered accounting tools are automating transaction categorization, bank reconciliation, and basic tax preparation. Firms that primarily offer routine bookkeeping services are watching their margins shrink as clients adopt these tools or switch to cheaper AI-assisted competitors.

The exception: Firms that have moved upmarket to advisory services — tax planning, CFO services, business strategy, M&A support — are thriving. The automation of routine work actually increases demand for the complex advisory work that remains human-dependent.

Staffing (for Automatable Roles)

Multiple trend: Compressing for certain segments

Staffing firms placing workers in roles that AI is automating — data entry, basic customer service, routine administrative work — face structural revenue pressure. The demand for these workers is declining, and it won't come back.

The exception: Staffing firms focused on skilled trades, healthcare, engineering, and other hard-to-automate roles are seeing strong demand. The key is whether the roles you fill are AI-resilient.

Translation and Localization

Multiple trend: Compressing

AI translation quality has improved dramatically. Businesses offering straightforward document translation or basic localization face significant pricing pressure. Specialized translation — legal, medical, literary, cultural adaptation — retains value, but the volume of work that requires human translation is shrinking.

Print, Traditional Media, and Basic Marketing

Multiple trend: Compressing (accelerating)

AI is accelerating trends that were already underway. Programmatic ad buying is increasingly AI-driven, reducing the need for media buying intermediaries. Print advertising continues to decline. Basic marketing services — email campaigns, simple SEO, social media posting — are increasingly handled by in-house teams using AI tools.

What This Means for Your Exit Timeline

If your business is in a gaining category, the market is in your favor. Buyers are actively competing for AI-resilient businesses with growth potential, and multiples reflect that demand. If you're considering selling in the next 2-3 years, the window is strong.

If your business is in a pressured category, you have a decision to make:

Pivot toward AI-resilient services. A bookkeeping firm can shift to advisory. A content agency can move upmarket to strategy. A staffing firm can specialize in skilled roles. These pivots take time — usually 12-24 months to show meaningful results — but they can transform your valuation trajectory.

Sell before the pressure increases. If pivoting isn't realistic, selling sooner rather than later may protect value. Multiples in pressured categories are declining, and the trend is likely to continue as AI capabilities improve.

Use AI to differentiate. Even in pressured categories, businesses that use AI tools to deliver better, faster, or cheaper service than competitors can carve out defensible positions. A tax prep firm that uses AI to handle routine returns in half the time — and passes some savings to clients while improving margins — can compete effectively even as the industry shifts.

How to Assess Your Own Position

Ask yourself these questions honestly:

• Could a motivated client replace what we do with AI tools and a part-time employee? If yes, you're in a pressured category.
• Does our work require physical presence, licensing, or regulatory expertise? If yes, you're likely AI-resilient.
• Are we using AI to improve our margins and service delivery? If yes, you're positioning for a premium. If no, you're leaving value on the table.
• Is demand for our core service growing or shrinking as AI adoption increases? The trend matters more than today's snapshot.

The businesses commanding the best multiples in 2026 aren't necessarily the ones building AI products. They're the ones doing essential, hard-to-automate work — and using AI to do it more efficiently and profitably than their competitors.

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Not sure where your business falls? Schedule a free call and we'll assess your AI positioning and what it means for your valuation.